Tuesday, January 15, 2008
What a difference a year makes. At this time last year, we all thought Brett Favre would wind up in Mississippi golfing in retirement and Tom Coughlin would be either be fired before the 2007 season began or would be fired after week 3. Oh, and there were the Bears preparing for the Saints in the NFC Championship. Here’s a quick preview of each of the conference championship games:
New York vs. Green Bay
This game has Brett Favre written all over it and it seemed unlikely that the Packers would host the NFC Championship game at Lambeau Field. In the end, the tumultuous Cowboys folded and Terrell Owens cried like a girl who didn’t get Hannah Montana tickets. The Packers won’t benefit from snow this weekend, but will feel right at home with frigid temperatures (a balmy high of 6 degrees) expected.
What the Packers Do Well: They’ll show you an I formation with double tight ends and then on the very next play spread it out with four receivers. They’ll pass when expecting the run and run when expecting the pass. Brett Favre is always #1 on the “Who We Have to Stop” list, however, with an excellent running game with Ryan Grant (201 yards vs. Seattle), expect to see Green Bay exploit the Giants defense with Ryan Grant utilizing cutbacks when the Giants become over-agressive. Due to the weather, it’s a good bet you’ll see a slew of draws and screens in an effort to counter the blitzing schemes. If none of that works, they’ll just depend on Favre to bail them out gunslingin’ all over the field. Defensively, the Packers may have one of the best secondaries in the league. Al Harris and Charles Woodson make it nearly impossible to go down field in the passing game and their linebackers look something similar to what the Bears had last year.
What the Giants Do Well: Get pressure on the quarterback. They get good enough pressure from their front four, yet will still come after you on third down making it nearly impossible for a quarterback to drop back 5 to 7 yards. Their decent against the run, but did let Marion Barber run all over them last week. Ryan Grant won’t be any easier. Offensively, they’re as about consistent as City of Chicago fees. They can put together a great drive (like they did before the half against Dallas) yet seem to take two steps back for every one step forward. Running game is all about power, but this one falls on the shoulders of Eli Manning. He’ll need to do the same thing he did in teen temperatures as he did in Dallas. The key will be New York’s ability to keep drives alive and survive without Jeremy Shockey.
Guys Not Necessarily Heard From: Green Bay Offense: Donald Lee-Just the guy who could exploit the Giants across the middle on third down. Green Bay Defense: Atari Bigby-He may be the guy who stops the Giants running game. New York Offense: Ahmad Bradshaw-will he be the key to success on third down? New York Defense: R.W. McQuarters-he’ll get accustomed to being in the nickel, not smoking it.
My Pick: Packers 31 Giants 17…homefield advantage really counts when in Green Bay…in January.
San Diego vs. New England
Is this just a formality or what? Everyone was hoping for an Indy-New England matchup, but Team Peyton didn’t deliver. Philip Rivers will learn this week to not provoke the home field fans…quickly.
What the Patriots Do Well: Everything. Need I say more? Tom Brady and the Pats made things a bit more interesting against Jacksonville, but San Diego won’t be any match on either side of the ball. No matter who they play, no one seems to be able to create enough pressure on Brady to create mismatches or forcing him to create plays. Brady is superb in changing the play when the original call isn’t there. Expect to see New England man-handle the time of possession column.
What the Chargers Do Well: Apparently, not relying on LaDanian Tomlinson. The key to their success may be exploiting the middle of the field, but that’s if Rivers has anytime to throw the ball and if San Diego can establish somewhat of a running game. Most, if any, of their success may come from Michael Turner and Darren Sproles. Defensively, the Chargers will match up well on paper utilizing the 3-4, but nothing seems to matter when it comes to New England. Belichick may be a bit hesitant to test anything to Antonio Cromartie’s side.
Guys Not Necessarily Heard From: New England Offense: Kevin Faulk- Not unheard of, just another guy who will exploit the Chargers on screens. New England Defense: Ty Warren- Yet another Patriot who will benefit from a stellar defensive roster. San Diego Offense: Michael Turner- will he be the right formula for what looks like a negative equation? San Diego Defense: Marlon McCree-stretch out good because they’ll need you on every passing play.
My Pick: New England 35 San Diego 13…the Patriots may be more methodical, but they’ll still make a statement.
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